Ukraine – A Global Powerhouse Protein Exporter in the Making

In a relatively short period (the last 10 years), Ukraine has begun to make its mark in the top rankings of major poultry exporters. The country, historically known as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’, with over a quarter of the world’s fertile chernozem soil (or “black earth”) and 54% of its land arable, has long dominated several grain and oil-seed export markets (4th ranked wheat exporter globally, 3rd ranked exporter of corn, top-ranked exporter of sunflower oil).

In recent years the country has made tremendous strides in transforming this natural comparative advantage in agriculture into a value-added export through scaled production and export of poultry (the most consumed meat protein globally by volume and the most affordable for emerging consumers climbing up the food ladder; chicken costs 30% of the cost of beef, less than half the cost of pork).

Ukraine has grown to become the world’s 6th largest exporter of chicken (5th ranked net exporter) with an expected 3.4% share of global exports in 2020 (USDA forecast). What is most impressive is that the country has grown its exports at 21.5% CAGR since 2013, far outpacing any of its top export rivals, and has done so in spite of a relatively stable Hryvnia (unlike the Brazilian Real, the UAH/$ was one of the best performing currencies in 2019).

With big logistical advantages vs. Brazil (the world’s dominant exporter of protein) for exports to two of the fastest growing regional markets for protein (MENA and SSA), a shrinking domestic population with a high consumption penetration for chicken, abundant water & land resources and favorable climate, and with land reforms expected to unlock further supply of underutilized farmlands, the country is well positioned to continue to grow its export market share in the next decade and beyond.

Early innings in a very exciting secular story.